Price Expectation Report – August ’19

 

This report gives a unique insight into how Australian vendors are feeling about the sale price they achieve. We ask one question, was your sale price above, in line with, or below your expectations?

 

To make the findings relatable we equate above expectation results with happy vendors, and below expectation results with unhappy vendors.

 

This quarter’s update is based on more than 14,000 reviews left on ratemyagent.com.au between April and June 2019. The data reveals that;

 

  • An overall recovery in vendor happiness lead by metro properties, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne and the top end of town (properties valued about $1.5m+).
  • Tasmania, already the happiest state previous to this quarter has surged further ahead, while the doldrums in WA and regional QLD continue.
  • Significant volatility in the market, with some large gains and loses in price expectation vs. the previous quarter.
  • Biggest gains (Local Government Authority level):
  • TAS: Launceston +23
  • NSW: Ryde (North Shore) +22, The Hills (The Hills District) +21, Strathfield (Inner West Sydney) +20
  • VIC: Boroondara (Eastern Melbourne) +25, Cardinia (Outer East Melb) +20
  • Biggest losses:
  • VIC: Surf Coast (Southwest) -28, Glen Eira (Eastern Melbourne) -13
  • QLD: Mackay (Central Queensland) -10
  • SA: Playford (Metropolitan Adelaide) -6
  • NSW: Mid-coast (Greater Metropolitan Newcastle & Hunter) -6

 

Mark Armstrong, CEO of RateMyAgent said “The smiles are coming back to the property market and this quarter’s report demonstrates that, quite literally, as price expectation continues to recover from a low at the end of 2018. Sydney and Melbourne are the engine of the recovery, while the smiles are widest in Tasmania. As we look to the Spring market there are plenty of reasons for optimism.”

 

QUICKLINKS

 

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

 

A smile shaped curve shows a national recovery in 2019. Above expectation outcomes have steadily increased month by month, as below expectation results have decreased.

 

 

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STATE BY STATE

 

Quarterly summary:

Tasmania is the happiest state by a significant margin, while WA is the unhappiest, again, by a large margin. The remaining states and territories are clustered together.

Note: minimum 100 reviews so excludes NT

 

Trend:

  • Tasmania has seen a dramatic increase in net happiness this quarter
  • VIC, NSW, QLD are trending upwards, SA has seen a drop over the quarter, with WA largely stagnant

 

 

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METRO VS. REGIONAL

 

  • Our data shows overall Price Expectation reductions in the second half of 2018 were driven by Metro properties.
  • Metro has subsequently recovered, achieving parity with Regional properties in May-19 and overtaking them in June-19.

 

 

  • Examining Metro and Regional by state reveals the dramatic drops in metro Sydney and Melbourne in the second half of 2018, and the recovery since
  • Regional properties in QLD, NSW and VIC have all seen declines since we started measuring in Apr-18, regional QLD proving to be particularly volatile

 

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OUR HAPPY PLACES

 

Australia’s top 20 happiest regions

 

 

 

  • TAS has 3 of the top 5 happiest regions
  • VIC has the most regions (7), with TAS (5), NSW (6) and SA & ACT (1 each) following
  • Melbourne’s Outer North has the highest above happy score nationally, but net happiness is reduced due to a higher below expectation result, compared to other regions in the top 5
  • Note: minimum 50 reviews

 

Examining which regions are experiencing the fastest rise in net happy scores since last quarter;

 

 

  • NSW (8) and VIC (7) dominate the regions with the largest gains in net happiness, with TAS (2), and SA and WA (1)
  • Sharp rises for metro Sydney (Southern, Western, Eastern suburbs, Inner West) and Melbourne (Outer North, Outer East, Northern, Southern, Western, Eastern, Outer West)
  • Metro areas represent 13 of the top 20, with regional 7, underlining the metro recovery seen nationally.
  • Note: minimum 50 reviews

 

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THE UNHAPPIEST 🙁

Australia’s top 20 unhappiest regions

 

 

 

  • South west regional WA has the lowest net happiness level nationally, and is the only place with a single digit score
  • NSW has the most unhappy regions (7), with QLD (6) VIC (4) and WA (3) following
  • An almost even split between regional (11) and metro (9), but regional QLD is over represented with 5 regional areas.

 

Examining which regions are experiencing the fastest drop in net happy scores since last quarter;

 

 

  • Drops in net happiness are dominated by regional areas, 14 of the top 20
  • Metropolitan Adelaide shows a significant drop which will be contributing to the overall reduction in SA

 

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THE PRICE OF YOUR HOME AND HAPPINESS

 

Quarterly summary:

 

 

Trend:

 

 

The overall increase in net happiness is being driven by a recovery in $1.5m+ houses, which have moved from being equal lowest net happiness to the highest this quarter.

 

 

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STATE SNAPSHOTS – IN DETAIL STATE BY STATE

Note: 50 reviews minimum

 

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

Regions showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • The Hills District +17
  • Southern Sydney +15
  • Mid North Coast +13
  • Western Sydney +12
  • Eastern Suburbs Sydney +11

WORST:

  • Inner Sydney +1
  • Central West regional +3
  • Richmond Tweed +4
  • Northern NSW +5
  • Illawara +6

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

LGAs showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Ryde (North Shore) +22
  • The Hills (The Hills District) +21
  • Strathfield (Inner West Sydney) +20
  • Clarence Valley (Mid North Coast) +17
  • Sutherland (Southern Sydney) +16

WORST:

  • Mid-coast (Greater Metropolitan Newcastle & Hunter) -6
  • Lithgow (Central West) -3
  • Maitland (Greater Metropolitan Newcastle & Hunter) -3
  • Port Stephens (Greater Metropolitan Newcastle & Hunter) -2
  • Lake Macquarie (Greater Metropolitan Newcastle & Hunter) 0

 

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VICTORIA

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

Regions showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Outer North Melbourne +25
  • Outer East Melbourne +15
  • Northern Melbourne +11
  • Southern Melbourne +11
  • Western Melbourne +10

WORST:

  • Southwest Vic -7
  • Central Highlands & Goldfields -1
  • Gippsland +2
  • Northeast Vic +5
  • Inner Melbourne +8

 

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

LGAs showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Boroondara (Eastern Melbourne) +25
  • Cardinia (Outer East Melbourne) +20
  • Maroondah (Outer East Melbourne) +18
  • Moonee Valley (northern Melbourne) +16
  • Yarra Ranges (Outer East Melbourne) +15

WORST:

  • Surf Coast (Southwest) -28
  • Glen Eira (Eastern Melbourne) -13
  • Macedon Ranges (Central Highlands & Goldfields) -3
  • Moorabool (Central Highlands & Goldfields) +2
  • Greater Dandenong (Outer South Melbourne) +2

 

 

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QUEENSLAND

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

Regions showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • North Queensland +9
  • Wide Bay – Burnett +3
  • South East Queensland (Metro) +3
  • South East Queensland (Regional) +2
  • Central Queensland +1

WORST:

  • Far North Queensland -1
  • Central Queensland +1
  • South East Queensland (Regional) +2
  • South East Queensland (Metro) +3
  • Wide Bay – Burnett +3

 

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (high to low)

 

 

 

 

LGAs showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Townsville (North Queensland) +12
  • Ipswich (South East Queensland) +9
  • Tablelands (Far North Queensland) +6
  • Brisbane (SE Queensland) +6
  • Fraser Coast (Wide Bay-Burnett) +5

WORST:

  • Mackay (Central Queensland) -10
  • Scenic Rim (SE Queensland) -9
  • Cairns (Far North Queensland) -8
  • Redland (SE Queensland) -3
  • Lockyer Valley (SE Queensland) -2

 

 

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WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

Regional changes since last quarter:

  • Peel +10
  • South West +3
  • Metropolitan Perth +2

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

 

LGAs changes since last quarter:

  • Mandurah (Peel) +11
  • Wanneroo (Metropolitan Perth) +7
  • Melville (Metropolitan Perth) +4
  • Sterling (Metropolitan Perth) +1
  • Swan (Metropolitan Perth) +0

 

 

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SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

Regions showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Central (SA) +13

WORST:

  • Metropolitan Adelaide -13

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

 

LGAs showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Port Adelaide Enfield 6

WORST:

  • Playford (Metropolitan Adelaide) -6
  • Marion (Metropolitan Adelaide) -5
  • Onkaparinga (Metropolitan Adelaide) -2

 

 

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TASMANIA

 

Regions in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

 

Regions showing the largest changes since last quarter:

  • Lauceston +23
  • South East +13
  • Hobart +2

 

Local government areas in order of net price expectation (highest to lowest)

 

 

LGAs showing the largest changes since last quarter:

BEST:

  • Meander Valley (Launcaston) +26
  • Clarence (Hobart) +11

WORST:

  • Hobart (Hobart) +1

 

 

 

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